Vestnik KRAUNC. Fiz.-Mat. Nauki. 2022. vol. 39. no. 2. pp. 103–118. ISSN 2079-6641

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MSC 65L05

Research Article

Numerical implementation of a mathematical model (SEIRD) based on data from the spread of the fifth wave of COVID-19 in Russia and regions

A. F. Tsakhoeva, D. D. Shigin

North Ossetian State University named after K. L. Khetagurov, 362025, Vladikavkaz, Vatutin str., 44-46, Russia


In the present paper, a fractional-order epidemic model with operator called the Caputo operator for the transmission of COVID-19 epidemic is analyzed. This model takes into account the following groups of people: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), recovered (R) and deceased (D). The model is called SEIRD, from the first letters of the names of the described groups. Calculations are based on public data on incidence in Russia and the following subjects: Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kamchatka Krai.

Key words: Fractional-order derivative, COVID-19, SEIRD model.

DOI: 10.26117/2079-6641-2022-39-2-103–118

Original article submitted: 10.06.2022

Revision submitted: 23.08.2022

For citation. Tsakhoeva A. F., Shigin D. D. Numerical implementation of a mathematical model (SEIRD) based on data from the spread of the fifth wave of COVID-19 in Russia and regions. Vestnik KRAUNC. Fiz.-mat. nauki. 2022, 39: 2, 103–118. DOI: 10.26117/2079-6641-2022-39-2-103–118

Competing interests. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding authorship and publication.

Contribution and Responsibility. All authors contributed to this article. Authors are solely responsible for providing the final version of the article in print. The final version of the manuscript was approved by all authors.

The content is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (

© Tsakhoeva A. F., Shigin D. D., 2022


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Tsakhoeva Albina Feliksovna – Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences, Associate Professor, Department of Applied Mathematics and Informatics, North Ossetian State University named after K. L. Khetagurov, Vladikavkaz, Russia, ORCID 0000-0002-4179-9598.

Shigin Dmitry Dmitrievich – master student of the Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, specialty “Applied Mathematics and Informatics North Ossetian State University named after K. L. Khetagurov, Vladikavkaz, Russia, ORCID 0000-0002-5156-8048.