Vestnik КRAUNC. Fiz.-Mat. Nauki. 2025. vol. 53. no. 4. P. 142 – 167. ISSN 2079-6641

PHYSICS
https://doi.org/10.26117/2079-6641-2025-53-4-142-167
Research Article
Full text in Russian

PACS *43.40.Le, 41.20.-q, 41.20.Jb, 84.40.-x, 91.55.Mb, 91.30.Dk;

MSC 60G22, 37M10, 33E12

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Earthquake Precursors in the Theory of Criticality of Geodeformations

B. M. Shevtsov^{\ast}, O. V. Sheremetyeva

Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation FEB RAS, 684034, Kamchatka Krai, Paratunka village, Mirnaya str., 7, Russia

Abstract. Earthquake precursors are considered as resonant manifestations of critical geodeformations, dislocation changes of which are responsible for the anomalous properties of both the deformations themselves and the physical processes generated by them, which play the role of indicators of earthquake preparation. Taking into account the vortex nature of shear dislocations, it is shown that critical geodeformations are a transition to a turbulent state of rheological flows in the area of the formation of a seismic event focus. Earthquake precursors are classified according to their direct or indirect relation to dislocation changes and it is shown that the probability of earthquake prediction depends on this. Within the framework of the criticality theory, the mechanisms of formation of earthquake precursors and the causes of their anomalous properties are discussed. In conclusion, the results of fractional differential modeling of various phases of seismicity and model verification using data from the seismic catalog are considered.

Key words: earthquake precursors, critical geodeformations, anomalous physical phenomena, scaling, dislocation changes, seismoacoustic vibrations, electrification of rocks, electromagnetic emission, electrode effect in the atmosphere, displacement currents, ionospheric disturbances, fractional Poisson process, seismic process, Mittag-Leffler’s function, approximation, statistical model, fractional model.

Received: 20.10.2025; Revised: 12.11.2025; Accepted: 02.12.2025; First online: 03.12.2025

For citation. Shevtsov B. M., Sheremetyeva O. V. Earthquake precursors in the theory of criticality of geodeformations. Vestnik KRAUNC. Fiz.-mat. nauki. 2025, 53: 4, 142-167. EDN: WVPAWX. https://doi.org/10.26117/2079-6641-2025-53-4-142-167.

Funding. The work was supported by IKIR FEB RAS State Task (subject registration No. 124012300245-2)

Competing interests. There are no conflicts of interest regarding authorship and publication.

Contribution and Responsibility. All authors contributed to this article. Authors are solely responsible for providing the final version of the article in print. The final version of the manuscript was approved by all authors.

^{\ast}Correspondence: E-mail: bshev@ikir.ru

The content is published under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

© Shevtsov B. M., Sheremetyeva O. V., 2025

© Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation, 2025 (original layout, design, compilation)

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Information about the authors

Shevtsov Boris Mikhailovich – D. Sci. (Phys. & Math.), Professor, Major Researcher, Electromagnetic Radiation Laboratory, IKIR FEB RAS, Paratunka, Kamchatka, Russia, ORCID 0000-0003-0625-0361.

Sheremetyeva Olga Vladimirovna – PhD (Tech.), Research Scientist, Laboratory of Physical Process Modeling, IKIR FEB RAS, Paratunka, Kamchatka, Russia, ORCID 0000-0001-9417-9731.

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