Bulletin KRASEC. Phys. & Math. Sci. 2017. vol. 16, issue. 1. pp. 74-84. ISSN 2313-0156

DOI: 10.18454/2313-0156-2017-16-1-74-84

PHYSICS

MSC 86A15

ESTIMATION OF PREDICTIVE EFFICIENCY OF SEISMIC REGIME PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS

V.V. Bogdanov, A.V. Pavlov

Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation FEB RAS, 684034, Paratunka, Mirnaya str., 7, Russia
E-mail: vbogd@ikir.ru pavlov@ikir.ru

On the basis of theoretical-probabilistic approach to the Kamchatka Earthquakes Catalog, a subset of random events was specified and their probability values were calculated. The received probabilities of random events are considered as predictors of strong earthquakes with the energy class of KS≥14. Their efficiency V, reliability R and forecast efficiency (informative value) J were calculated for the periods of seismic activity and seismic quiescence.

Key words: probability, seismic regime, predictive efficiency.

 

References

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For citation: Bogdanov V.V., Pavlov A.V. Estimation of predictive efficiency of seismic regime probabilistic model parameters. Bulletin KRASEC. Physical and Mathematical Sciences 2017, vol. 16, issue 1, 74-84. DOI: 10.18454/2313-0156-2017-16-1-74-84

Original article submitted: 02.11.2016

   bogd

   Bogdanov Vadim Vasil’evich – D. Si. (Phys. & Math.), Chief Researcher, Institute of Space Physics Research and Radio Wave Propagation FEB RAS, Kamchatkiy kray, Paratunka, Russia.

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     Pavlov Aleksey Vladimirovich – Researcher of Lab. Atmosphere Physics, Institute of Cosmophysical Researches and Radio Wave Propagation FEB RAS.

 

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